Labor figures for Mexico’s municipalities: Small Area Estimation

Abstract

Labor figures for Mexico’s municipalities were estimated during 2018’s first quarter by using Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques with the incorporation of a spatial component – given there is no recent information source with such a level of geographic disaggregation. To achieve this, combined information from different sources was used to build statistical models in which the Economically Active Population, the Employed Population and the Informal Employed Population were taken as variables object of estimation – this information was taken from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE for its acronym in Spanish). Auxiliary variables were selected from population censuses, administrative records, and population projections. The results were contrasted with those calculated by applying the percentage structures of 2010 Population and Housing Census to the figures provided by ENOE at a federal entity level, and with the data in this survey (obtained by direct estimation for those municipalities which had a sufficient sample with acceptable coefficients of variation). It is observed that the results obtained by Small Area Estimation are plausible and register coefficients of variation below 10 percent.