Abstract
Abstract: The study analyses the relationship between the distribution of the main Italian forest vegetation types and the conditions during average temperature of the coldest month, at present and those predicted for scenarios A2a and B2a of the GCM HADCM3 until the year 2080. With an increased average temperature of the coldest month up to 4.4 °C in 2080, current temperature values for the main forest species will change greatly, creating favorable preconditions for an increased presence of broadleaved deciduous species in mountain altitudes of the Alps, more termophilous broadleaved species on those of the Appennines and more Mediterranean species on lower mountains, hills and lowlands of the country. The results are compared with previsional models of tree species distribution due to predicted climate changes, and the possible influence of some ecological factors is discussed.
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