La transition économique de l’Égypte : défis et perspectives

Abstract

Egypt faces the Herculean task of simultaneously rebuilding its polity and economy and doing so in the absence of broad social consensus on either. State institutions underpinning both, ranging from the legislative and judicial branches to executive agencies with direct responsibility for economic management require substantial if not total overhauls. It is only the bedrock of the deep state that remains firmly in place, but that solid foundation is an inappropriate one upon which to construct a competitive and inclusive political economy. Any regime, in short, would face profound challenges in either creating a ‘second republic’ or re-invigorating the first, now badly discredited one. The military regime that seized power in July 2013, faces particularly intense ones not only because of the means by which it assumed power, but also because of its very nature. Military regimes are out of step with the times. One of the reasons they are is that they fail to deliver development, thereby suggesting that militaries are inherently incapable of devising and implementing successful economic models. Whether the Egyptian one might differ in this regard is the question this paper addresses. It does so by providing a brief overview of the broad political and economic challenges Egypt faces, followed by more detailed investigations of specific challenges in the areas of fiscal management, fostering a capable business elite, improving the capabilities and performance of the labor force, and generating growth in particular sectors. An effort is then made to foretell the ‘Sisinomic’ model likely to be crafted to meet these and other challenges, followed by an evaluation of its prospects for success.