Abstract
The current Peruvian exchange regime is neither pegged nor free-floating. The Peruvian Central Bank sails against the wind in the exchange market, tending to buy dollars when the exchange rate falls, and tending to sell when the exchange rate rises. It is a dirty float regime. In this paper we present a simple macroeconomic model where the central bank fixes the interest rate and maintains a dirty floating exchange rate regime, assuming a small, open, and partiallydollarized economy that exports raw materials, faces imperfect capital mobility, and has a structural fiscal deficit limit as a rule for its fiscal policy. The predictions of the model are consistent with the rule of foreign exchange intervention by the Central Bank and the main stylized facts of the Peruvian economy since the decline in the international price of raw materials in late 2011: drastic fall in private investment, decline of GDP growth, rising nominal exchange rate and reduction of international reserves.
Highlights
RESUMEN El régimen de tipo de cambio en el Perú no es fijo ni flotante
The Peruvian Central Bank sails against the wind in the exchange market, tending to buy dollars when the exchange rate falls, and tending to sell when the exchange rate rises
In this paper we present a simple macroeconomic model where the central bank fixes the interest rate and maintains a dirty floating exchange rate regime, assuming a small, open, and partiallydollarized economy that exports raw materials, faces imperfect capital mobility, and has a structural fiscal deficit limit as a rule for its fiscal policy
Summary
El régimen de tipo de cambio en el Perú no es fijo ni flotante. Tal como se registra en el gráfico siguiente, el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) rema en contra de la corriente en el mercado cambiario. En este artículo se presenta un modelo macroeconómico donde el eje de atención es la flotación sucia, acompañado de un esquema de tasa de interés administrada, en el contexto de una economía pequeña, abierta, parcialmente dolarizada, exportadora de materias primas, con movilidad imperfecta de capitales y con una política fiscal que opera con un límite al déficit fiscal estructural. El modelo es consistente con la regla de intervención del BCRP y los principales hechos estilizados de la economía peruana desde el inicio del descenso del precio internacional de las materias primas a fines de 2011: caída drástica de la inversión privada, descenso del crecimiento del PBI, alza del tipo de cambio y reducción de las reservas internacionales.
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