La ecuación ERICE: la nueva ecuación autóctona de riesgo cardiovascular para una población mediterránea envejecida y de bajo riesgo en España

Abstract

Introduction and objectivesIn Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. MethodsSeven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11 800 people (6387 women) representing 107 915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. ResultsAge was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic = 0.789 in men and C = 0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. ConclusionsThe ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain.Full English text available from:www.revespcardiol.org/en