La Crosse virus spread within the mosquito population in Knox County, TN.

Cameron Cook,Rebecca Trout Fryxell,Annastashia Blesi,Suzanne Lenhart,Hanna Reed,Samantha Brozak,Abelardo Moncayo,Cassandra Urquhart,Abdallah M Samy

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0249811

Abstract

In Appalachia, La Crosse virus (LACV) is a leading pediatric arbovirus and public health concern for children under 16 years. LACV is transmitted via the bite of an infected Aedes mosquito. Thus, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of the local vector population in order to assess risk and transmission. Using entomological data collected from Knox County, Tennessee in 2013, we formulate an environmentally-driven system of ordinary differential equations to model mosquito population dynamics over a single season. Further, we include infected compartments to represent LACV transmission within the mosquito population. Findings suggest that the model, with dependence on degree days and accumulated precipitation, can closely describe field data. This model confirms the need to include these environmental variables when planning control strategies.

Highlights

La Crosse encephalitis (LACE) is the leading pediatric arboviral disease in the continental United States [1]
Building on two previous models using data in Knox County [25, 27], we developed a nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equation to represent mosquito populations with the transmission of La Crosse virus (LACV) in Knox County, Tennessee
Our model goes beyond those two mosquito population models to include the infected mosquito compartments and disease progression dynamics

Summary

Introduction

La Crosse encephalitis (LACE) is the leading pediatric arboviral disease in the continental United States [1]. LACE typically affects children younger than 16 years, with the strongest prevalence in male children between the ages of 5-9 [1, 2]. Children diagnosed with LACE are infected with La Crosse virus (LACV), which generates symptoms such as headache, fever, behavioral changes, and seizures [3]. This wide variety of symptoms can cause LACE to go undiagnosed. Originally found in the upper Midwest, LACE is primarily diagnosed in southern Appalachia [3, 5]

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