Abstract
The paper delves into the Afghanistan crisis in a regional perspective. It frames the regional and international influences in the country emphasizing the interdependence between global and regional interferences. It argues that regional actors tend to gain more freedom of action in Afghan affairs when global actors – empires or superpowers – disengage from the country. Conversely, when global powers are intervening (as during the Great Game, the Soviet occupation or the US intervention since 2001), regional actors lose their sway. Accordingly, the paper investigates the recent crisis in Afghanistan identifying three phases starting from the US mission launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks: the G.W. Bush approach to the military campaign in Afghanistan (2001-8); the Af-Pak Strategy implemented by the Obama administration (2009-14); the years of international withdrawal (2015-19). For each period, the analysis underlines the activism of regional actors in Afghanistan and how it becomes prominent when the global power tends to disengage.
Highlights
Central Asia as a region has been in the spotlight of international expert, academic and decision-maker attention in the recent period, for the most part as the playing field where several major powers of the world have been unfolding their foreign policy agendas
Central Asian states have showed limited interest to develop regional cooperation or to bolster economic integration, primarily because they have privileged the achievement of national interests, which were based on strengthening political sovereignty and economic independence
Central Asian states appeared not interested to promote regional cooperation: the only multilateral institution of cooperation exclusively composed by Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan refused to join it because of its neutrality policy) was the Central Asian Economic Cooperation, renamed the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO) in 2001: CACO lost this peculiarity after Russia’s adhesion in 2004
Summary
The situation in the country has changed, as it has the situation around the world. We have become the object of influence of international turbulent processes. To be noted that the current KNB director is another close associate of Nazarbayev, Karim Massimov, who in the given period, has been very active in diplomatic demarches apt to reassure the country external patrons (he went to the US to meet Secretary Pompeo and to China) Another important element of the transition apt to influence foreign policy in the near future is the entrance into the political scene of the younger, post-post-Soviet generation actor of the protests. Educated in Western universities, the new leaders intended to lobby their position making active use of existing international instruments to which Kazakhstan has subscribed over the years As reported to this author by one of the actors of the protests (for the civic movement Oyan, Qazaqstan, “Wake Up, Kazakhstan”), if Tokayev will not establish with the new forces an effective dialogue on substantial reform of the electoral and political system, his legitimacy as national leader will further suffer as pressure from the side of Western partners will become more structured (Alzhanov 2019). These processes will be difficult since they will take place against a background of reduced economic expectations which will push up popular discontent unless the ruling elite will find ways to imporove social services and tackle the endemic corruption and the growing wealth gaps that are widespread in the country
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