L’évolution démographique de la Bulgarie au cours de la période de transition

Abstract

Since 1989, Bulgaria’s population faces a decrease, originally generated by a large number of ethnic Turks who emigrated to Turkey. In the period between 1988 and 2006, the decline reached approximately 1,2 million people. An estimated 71 % of this tendency is due to emigration process.The trends in the basic demographical parameters (birth rate, death rate and natural decrease) are quite negative. According to the official data, the negative balance of migration is over 800 000 people for the period 1989-2006. During the 1990s, as a result of the emigration of many young people and because of the economic crisis (especially in the years 1997 and 1998), birth rates fell down to reach levels of 7,7‰ (1997) to 7,9‰ (1998). But it is the death rate (14,7‰ in 2006), and not the birth rate, that shows significant difference compared to most EU countries. Infant mortality rate, although lowering its value, is still too high. Another difference is detected in measuring the life expectancy, which is significantly low.The demographic crisis is not only seen on a national scale, but on a regional level as well. With few exceptions, it has spread over each of the municipalities in the country, though with varying intensity and depth.