Abstract
The Future of South Africa, by Klaus Baron von der Ropp A radicalisation of the political forces in South Africa is occurring today. The modest plans for reform put forward in 1979 by P.W. Botha, the "liberal" Prime Minister, have not been achieved. An extreme group, hostile to any modification of the status quo, has split away from the governing party and has regrouped with the conservative party. The struggle for freedom from apartheid carried out by the black political parties and black trade unions, which have become increasingly political, has intensified. Though they can no longer be ignored by Pretoria, it has so far refused any dialogue with the true representatives of black people, being unable to accept the principle of "one man, one vote in one state". Given this polarisation of attitudes and warning voices even amongst the Afrikaners, is it still possible to achieve a real change through the democratic process? Is civil war the only means of access to political power left to the black population? Because of the economic and strategic importance of South Africa, any such conflict would have very serious international repercussions.
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