Kuraklık Analizi ve Dirençlilik Stratejileri: Van Gölü Havzası Örneği

Abstract

Drought progresses more slowly than other natural disasters and is noticed late. It starts with decreasing precipitation and affects all human activities. Considering the effects of increasing climate change and past droughts, it is certain that drought will be inevitable in the future. Until now, many countries have experienced drought, including Turkey. Several publications have appeared in recent years documenting drought in different regions and basins in our country; however, there is no study presenting drought analysis and subsequent strategies in Lake Van Basin, which has large agricultural areas. The aim of this study is to reveal the meteorological droughts experienced in the past years in Lake Van Basin and to determine the resilience strategies for these droughts, considering the characteristics of the basin. To that end, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed in this study to detect past meteorological droughts and calculate drought values. Spatial analyses were mapped using ArcGIS software with Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Then, the maps were evaluated for each year between 2010 and 2019. Online interview is used with relevant expert who worked as project expert in the Lake Van Basin Drought Management Plan. In this interview, the current situation and potentials of the basin were discussed. After the analyses and literature study, expert opinion was used to determine the most appropriate strategies for the basin. Results indicated that the suitability of the strategies for the basin and ecosystem was taken into consideration. The basin experienced severe dry level drought in 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2019. It was determined that droughts in the basin was not only because of climate change, but also because of improper irrigation techniques, lack of technological systems and public awareness in the basin. In order to reduce the effects of these causes on the drought, practicable resilience strategies have been determined. Strategies determined after the method applied in the selected area in this study are believed make important contributions to the development of the framework of studies in the field of drought. For this reason, the results of the study have the potential to contribute theoretically in terms of drought analysis and practically in terms of the applicability of resilience strategies. If strategies are implemented in accordance with these contributions, it is expected that Lake Van Basin will be less vulnerable to drought risks and more resilient to drought.