Abstract

Conversion of paddy fields in Indonesia is quite alarming, reaching an average area of 10 thousand hectares per year. Various regulations have been created and assigned; however, they are considered not to effectively reduce the rate of conversion of the existing paddy fields. The paddy field conversion has brought about negative impacts on the national food security. To overcome these, besides issuing the government regulations to reduce the rate of paddy field conversion, the government has also set a number of policies to boost rice production and to improve the welfare of farmers. One policy is the pricing policy by the Government Purchase Price (grains/rice). This study aimed to analyze the paddy field conversion in Indonesia and its effect on the Government Purchase Price (grains/rice). The data used in this research were the dynamic time series data from the years of 1990-2010, with the consideration of the upward trend in paddy field conversion in Indonesia. The models built an econometric model of simultaneous equations consisted of 41 equations (19 structural equations and 22 identity equations) or in other words, the model consisted of 41 endogenous variables. The results showed that the real prices (grains/rice) of the government purchases have inelastic responses to the changes of all explanatory variables in the short and long terms. The conversion of paddy fields in Indonesia has not only reduced the existing rice production capacity but also has affected the government purchase price policy (grains/rice). The government requires to implement the multi qualities of the government purchasing pries (HPP) for both grains and rice. Keywords: rice, grain, government purchase price, paddy field conversion

Highlights

  • Conversion of paddy fields in Indonesia is quite alarming, reaching an average area of 10 thousand hectares per year

  • Besides issuing the government regulations to reduce the rate of paddy field conversion, the government has set a number of policies to boost rice production and to improve the welfare of farmers

  • The data used in this research were the dynamic time series data from the years of 1990-2010, with the consideration of the upward trend in paddy field conversion in Indonesia

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Summary

METODE PENELITIAN

Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data deret waktu dari tahun 1990–2010 yang bersifat dinamik dengan pertimbangan tren peningkatan konversi lahan sawah di Indonesia. Data net konversi lahan sawah yang bernilai positif diasumsikan secara netto tidak terjadi konversi lahan sawah sehingga bernilai nol dan selanjutnya ditulis 0,001 untuk memudahkan pengolahan data. Penghitungan parameter pendugaan persamaan struktural dalam model dilakukan dengan menggunakan program komputer SAS/ETS (Statistical Analysis System/Econometric Time Series) versi 9.1.Penelitian ini menguji tentang beberapa asumsi dari metode pendugaan OLS, yaitu sebagai berikut: a. Sebagai pengganti untuk mengetahui apakah serial korelasi (autocorrelation) atau tidak dalam setiap persamaan, maka digunakan uji statistik dh (Durbin-h statistic) sebagai berikut: Keterangan: h (Angka statistik Durbin-h); Dw (Durbin-w statistik); T (Jumlah observasi); Var (β) (Varian koefisien regresi untuk lagged dependent variable)

Pemberlakuan harga
Lag harga riil gabah pembelian pemerintah
Implikasi Manjerial
KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH
Findings
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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