Konsumentenvertrauen in Deutschland: Methode und Ergebnisse des TCB-IW-Verbrauchervertrauens

Abstract

Private consumption is the largest component of gross domestic product. Even in a highly export-oriented economy such as Germany's, the current growth in private consumption is important, not to say very important, for the majority of companies. With the aim of establishing an early and improved picture of the latest trends in consumption, the figures collected for Germany by The Conference Board in cooperation with Nielsen as part of the Global Consumer Confidence Survey are in future to be published jointly with the German Economic Institute (IW) as the TCB-IW Consumer Confidence Index for Germany. The Index represents a particular improvement over existing indicators due to its international comparability with other industrialised countries and with emerging markets. Although the predictive quality of confidence indicators is limited, an index of consumer confidence can make an important contribution to assessing the current situation, while the multiplicity of separate questions makes it valuable for analysing consumer activity. Consumer confidence in Germany currently just makes it into the top third of the 64 countries surveyed. The medium-term increase in consumer confidence over the last few years reflects the continuous growth in consumption and the current strength of the consumer goods sector in Germany. By contrast, consumer confidence in Germany declined in the course of 2018, though stabilising in the first quarter of 2019, confirming the impression of a slowdown in consumer spending.