Konstruktion von Sammelindikatoren für den Konjunkturverlauf bei prekärer Datenlage am Beispiel Montenegros

Abstract

Composite business cycle indicators are important for monitoring the development of an economy. While many recent methodological innovations draw on huge data sets, there are still countries with a rather precarious data situation. This paper deals with the development of indicators in such an environment. Following the approach chosen for the KOF Economic Barometer, the procedure comprises two main stages. The first consists of a selection process based on the bivariate associations of potential input variables with the reference series. In the second stage, the selected series are transformed into an indicator by extraction of the first principal component. The application of this procedure to the data situation in Montenegro yields a final set of two quarterly indicators that can explain movements in the reference series – the annual growth rate of Montenegrin quarterly GDP – reasonably well. The first composite indicator mainly reflects recent international developments, allowing for an early detection of the direction in which the Montenegrin economy is heading. The second one contains many more variables covering Balkan economies, representing the idiosyncratic development of the region. The association of the second indicator with the reference series is much closer, which comes at the cost of later availability.