Kondratiev long cycles in metal commodity prices

Abstract

The hypothesis of cycles in metal and mineral commodity prices has been firmly documented. Studies in the last years, in the context of the unfolding of the supercycle, have been fruitful in the identification of long cycles. However, a less addressed aspect is their eventual connection with the long economic cycle theory or Kondratiev waves. This article presents the outcomes of an empirical inspection of Kondratiev waves in the real prices of the base metals, iron ore and gold for the period 1900–2017. The results indicate an important level of synchronization between metals prices and the Kondratiev waves. Thus, metal and mineral prices would be affected by the dynamics of long economic cycles (45–60 years). It is suggested to corroborate the empirical findings using the band-pass filters and a decomposition that takes into account these long cycles.