KOF Prognose der Gesundheitsausgaben: Herbst 2018

Abstract

The official figures show that total nominal healthcare spending in 2016 grew by 3.7 per cent, which was marginally slower than the data had suggested in the spring of that year. Because gross domestic product (GDP) rose much more slowly, however, healthcare expenditure as a share of GDP increased further to 12.2 per cent in 2016 (from 11.9 per cent in 2015). Overall, therefore, the trend in healthcare spending for 2016 was in line with the average. What was unusual, however, was that expenditure on outpatient treatment grew more slowly than spending on inpatient care. The low, significantly belowaverage rate of growth in expenditure on doctors' surgeries was also unexpected. KOF expects the increase in total healthcare spending for 2017 to be contained slightly and is thus forecasting a growth rate of 3.5 per cent. Nominal wage growth is likely to accelerate again this year. It is also expected that the elderly sections of the population will grow more sharply than last year. On the other hand, the political initiatives taking effect should contain the growth in spending. KOF therefore expects healthcare expenditure for 2018 to rise by an average of 3.8% year on year. Next year is likely to see both wage growth and the increase in the number of elderly people accelerate further, which means that healthcare spending will probably continue to rise. By contrast, further cost savings should come from the measures taken to shift healthcare more from inpatient to outpatient treatment, although these savings are likely to be a fairly modest amount. Overall, therefore, the rate of growth in healthcare spending will edge up to 3.9 per cent. Wage growth is expected to continue to accelerate slightly in 2020. Once the cost savings resulting from political initiatives have been factored in, the rate of growth in total healthcare spending for 2020 will be 3.9 per cent. However, the strong growth in nominal GDP from 2018 onwards will slow the relative rise in healthcare expenditure as a share of GDP. This proportion will therefore rise from 12.2 per cent in 2016 to just 12.8 per cent in 2020. When healthcare spending is broken down into individual categories, it becomes clear that auxiliary services should continue to grow significantly, albeit at a slightly more moderate rate than in the recent past. We also expect outpatient treatment to grow faster than inpatient care. An analysis of all healthcare providers reveals that other outpatient healthcare providers and auxiliary healthcare providers stand out thanks to their high growth rates. The trends among funding regimes are more diverse. The strongestgrowth here is coming from mandatory health insurance and personal payments.