Abstract
Purpose This paper aims to estimate the delay or timely effects of the national vaccination strategy for COVID-19 on Italian gross domestic product (GDP). By adopting a knowledge management lens, the study highlights the importance of “time” for Italian recovery. Indeed, recovering an adequate growth rate is crucial for the future of employment, well-being and management of Italian public debt. Design/methodology/approach This study applies an epidemiological model of a universal access vaccination programme against COVID-19. The economic model is based on the time-shift of available quarterly projections deriving from the expected delay or acceleration of the national vaccination plan against COVID-19. Findings The basic concept underlying the scenario analysis is that the sustainability of the expected recovery of the Italian economy due to the COVID-19 shock, and consequently the growth of the GDP, is time-dependent on the rollout of the national vaccination plan. Research limitations/implications A delay in the vaccination campaign could have a twofold negative impact on the growth of the Italian gross product: it reduces the quarterly growth over the previous year in the short term and it delays the quarterly upwards trend over the next two years. Policymakers and practitioners are called to promptly face new dynamic scenarios due to public and economic policies to fight the COVID-19 crisis. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt of research that focuses attention on the synchrony between the economic time necessary for recovery and the real-time necessary to achieve vaccination coverage for the restart of production activities.
Highlights
Uncertainty on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is very high
The paper applies an epidemiological model by adopting scenario-based projections for Italian gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and 2022
The projections for the Italian economy were based on the revised forecast for the Italian GDP prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and published on 27 January 2021
Summary
Uncertainty on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is very high. In 2020, Italian gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices fell by 10.05% compared with the previous year (IMF Data Mapper, 2021). The recovery will depend on the effectiveness of the national COVID-19 vaccination programme. On 2 December 2020, The Italian Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, presented to the Parliament the guidelines of Italy’s strategic plan for COVID-19 vaccination, drafted by the Ministry of Health, the Extraordinary Commissioner for the COVID-19 emergency, the Higher Institute of Health, the Italian National Agency for Regional Healthcare Services and the Italian Medicines Agency. Concerning the administration of vaccines, the Italian Ministry of Health declared that the immunisation program was expected to start from Q1 2021 and with a more significant distribution of vaccine doses in Q2 and Q3, to be completed substantially in Q4 2021. A textbook example, in this sense, is the temporary precautionary stop of the AstraZeneca anti-Covid vaccine ordered by several countries, including Italy, after reporting some serious adverse thromboembolic events following a very small number of administrations. The administration’s suspension was revoked following a further green light from the European Medicine Agency, after a series of checks and analyses of the reported cases (European Medicine Agency, 2021)
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