Knowledge acquisition techniques for decision analysis using AXOTL and AQUINAS

Abstract

The effective application of current decision tree and influence diagram software requires a relatively high level of sophistication in the theory and practice of decision analysis. Research on intelligent decision systems aims to lower the cost and amount of training required to use these methods through the use of knowledge-based systems; however, application prototypes implemented to date have required time-consuming and tedious hand-crafting of knowledge bases. This paper describes the development of DDUCKS, an “open architecture” problem-modeling environment that integrates components from AXOTL, a knowledge-based decision analysis workbench, with those of AQUINAS a knowledge acquisition workbench based on personal construct theory. The knowledge base tools in AXOTL can be configured with knowledge to provide guidance and help in formulating, evaluating and refining decision models represented in influence diagrams. Knowledge acquisition tools in DDUCKS will allow the knowledge to be efficiently modeled, more easily maintained, and thoroughly tested.