İklim Değişikliğine Bağlı Faktörlerle (Yüksek CO2, Yüksek Sıcaklık ve Kuraklık) Değişen Yağış ve Sıcaklık İklim Modeli İlişkisinin Türkiye'de Buğday Üretimine Etkisi

Abstract

Wheat (Triticum spp.), the staple food of approximately 50 countries, due to its appropriate nutritional value, storage and processing facilities, also providing approximately 20% of the total calories provided by plant-based foods to the world population, has a relevant importance in the food security of Turkey. Wheat yield, quality, and growth are all affected by environmental factors. Therefore, wheat production is affected by climate factors such as seasonal precipitation distribution, precipitation amount, temperature, and drought. With the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by global climate change, the risks to wheat production have become increasingly evident. In a study, it is estimated that wheat yield in Turkey will decrease by about 8% until 2100, according to the average scenario. According to the worst scenario, wheat production is expected to decrease by 23% on average in 2100. In order to solve this problem, appropriate scenarios should be developed regarding the effects of climate change on wheat. Strategies such as climate change adaptation strategies, low carbon emission technologies and capacity building can be developed. Our aim is to draw attention to the impact of climate change on wheat yield in Turkey.