Kinetic modelling of myocardial necrosis biomarkers offers an easier, reliable and more acceptable assessment of infarct size

Abstract

Infarct size is a major prognostic factor in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). It is often assessed using repeated blood sampling and the estimation of biomarker area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) in translational research. We aimed at developing limited sampling strategies (LSS) to accurately estimate biomarker AUC using only a limited number of blood samples in STEMI patients. This retrospective study was carried out on pooled data from five clinical trials of STEMI patients (TIMI blood flow 0/1) studies where repeated blood samples were collected within 72 h after admission to assess creatine kinase (CK), cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and muscle-brain CK (CK-MB). Biomarker kinetics was assessed using previously described biomarker kinetic models. A number of LSS models including combinations of 1 to 3 samples were developed to identify sampling times leading to the best estimation of AUC. Patients were randomly assigned to either learning (2/3) or validation (1/3) subsets. Descriptive and predictive performances of LSS models were compared using learning and validation subsets, respectively. An external validation cohort was used to validate the model and its applicability to different cTnI assays, including high-sensitive (hs) cTnI. 132 patients had full CK and cTnI dataset, 49 patients had CK-MB. For each biomarker, 180 LSS models were tested. Best LSS models were obtained for the following sampling times: T4–16 for CK, T8–T20 for cTnI and T8–T16 for CK-MB for 2-sample LSS; and T4–T16–T24 for CK, T4–T12–T20 for cTnI and T8–T16–T20 for CK-MB for 3-sample LSS. External validation was achieved on 103 anterior STEMI patients (TIMI flow 0/1), and the cTnI model applicability to recommended hs cTnI confirmed. Biomarker kinetics can be assessed with a limited number of samples using kinetic modelling. This opens the way for substantial simplification of future cardioprotection studies, more acceptable for the patients.