Kinematic Approach to the 24th Solar Cycle Prediction

Abstract

The results of kinematic modeling of the 24th solar cycle (SC) are discussed. Time series of solar and cosmic ray monthly mean indices were received from web resources of international data centers. The previous prediction of the solar cycle shape using kinematic modeling technique demonstrated rather close agreement with the final phase of the SC23 and relatively large magnitude of SC24. The forecast of 2005 is updated with respect to the modern observation of monthly mean data. The study allows concluding that the SC24 magnitude will probably near the previous cycle. Predicted moments of the maximum monthly mean values are expected in July–September 2012. The uncertainty of this interval is about ±1-2 months. The maximum monthly mean estimation can reach 130±20 relative sunspot number units. The mean amplitude of the generalized cycle shape is expected to be close to the 23rd maximum mean height. The SC24 form can be relatively narrow, and the cycle will probably be shorter than 10 years.