Abstract
Use of choice models is growing rapidly in tobacco research. These models are being used to answer key policy questions. However, certain aspects of smokers' choice behavior are not well understood. One such feature is addiction. Here, we address this issue by modeling data from a choice experiment on the US smokers. We model addiction using a latent variable. We use this latent variable to understand the relationship between choices and addiction, giving attention to nicotine levels. We find that more addicted smokers have stronger preferences for cigarettes and are unwilling to switch to e-cigarettes. Addicted smokers value nicotine in tobacco products to a much greater extent than those that are less addicted. Lastly, we forecast short-term responses to lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes. The results suggest that current nicotine-focused policies could be effective at encouraging addicted smokers to less harmful products and lead to substantial public health gains.
Highlights
In the economics of risky behavior, and in particular tobacco, the use of discrete choice models has proliferated in recent years (Regmi et al, 2018; Shi, Cao, Shang, & Pacula, 2019)
Developing this model allows us to overcome a set of difficult empirical issues and specify a behaviorally appealing model of short‐term smoking choices. This model embodies a more sophisticated depiction of smokers' cognitive decision‐ making processes than in previous work. We use this model to study the relationship between addiction and choice behavior, examine smokers' willingness to pay (WTP) for nicotine in tobacco products, and predict the impact of lowering nicotine in cigarettes
The results indicate that key heterogeneity in WTP/willingness to accept (WTA) for nicotine by addiction is masked by analysis at the sample level
Summary
In the economics of risky behavior, and in particular tobacco, the use of discrete choice models has proliferated in recent years (Regmi et al, 2018; Shi, Cao, Shang, & Pacula, 2019). There is likely to be correlation between these indicators and other unobserved effects at the individual level that influence choice behavior Using these indicators as error‐free variables in the model potentially leads to endogeneity bias, that is breaching the independence assumption of the explanatory variables and the error term. Developing this model allows us to overcome a set of difficult empirical issues and specify a behaviorally appealing model of short‐term smoking choices This model embodies a more sophisticated depiction of smokers' cognitive decision‐ making processes than in previous work. We use this model to study the relationship between addiction and choice behavior, examine smokers' willingness to pay (WTP) for nicotine in tobacco products, and predict the impact of lowering nicotine in cigarettes (which has recently been proposed by the US government).
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