Keynote: Moore's Law 3.0

Abstract

Summary form only given. Moore's Law is the defining feature of the information age. First expressed by Gordon Moore in 1965, Moore's Law says that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every one to two years. The result over the last fifty years has been dramatic improvements in computational capabilities, communications, entertainment, and all aspects of electronic technology, all at ever lower cost. Quite literally, Moore's Law has brought about a radical change in society, with implications for human civilization that are not fully resolved. But Moore's Law itself has undergone changes over the last 50 years. There have been three phases of Moore's Law, with the latest phase, what I call Moore's Law 3.0, recently becoming dominant. This talk will describe the history of Moore's Law, and the technical and economic forces that have shaped it. Tennant's Law, which relates cost to resolution, and the role of wafer size (and in particular the planned move to 450-mm diameter wafers) will also be discussed. The three Moore's Law eras will be explained, and the implications of the current Moore's Law 3.0 era on the future of technology development will be discussed. Warning: some speculations will be inevitable.