Keynes’s Investment Activities While in the Treasury During World War I

Abstract

In his book Old Friends Clive Bell commented that John Maynard Keynes ‘took to speculating’ in the summer of 1914, or a little earlier. Roy Harrod vigorously disagreed, arguing that Keynes did not start speculating until September 1919. Occasionally rumours had circulated that Keynes, in his investing, had taken advantage of inside information while in the Treasury during World War I. Harrod was concerned that Bell’s comment would lend credence to these rumours. He strenuously defended Keynes against this accusation. In this paper Keynes’s investment activities while in the Treasury during World War I are analysed to see if it is possible to determine whether he speculated before he left the Treasury in 1919 and/or whether he took advantage of his position in the Treasury. Keynes kept very extensive financial records. Using these data it is possible to analyse Keynes’s investments, beginning with the first investments he made upon graduation from King’s College, Cambridge University, through the investments he made while serving in the Treasury during World War I.