Abstract
In his economic writings, Keynes hints that his liquidity preference analysis is informed by the notion of evidential weight that first appears in his earlier Treatise on Probability. This paper reviews Keynes's distinction between probability and evidential weight, and offers an account of its influence in his later work on the incentive to hold liquid assets. Alternative representations of the Keynesian uncertainty/liquidity preference relation are assessed in the light of this discussion: James Tobin's mean-variance approach, the Keynesian fundamentalist view of Paul Davidson, and the flexibility approach represented by Louis Makowski. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.
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