Key sources of imprecision in radiological emergency response assessments

Abstract

In the first few hours after an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere it islikely that limited measurements of radioactivity in the environment will be available onwhich to make decisions concerning protection measures and radiation monitoringactivities, and that monitoring data will be supplemented by the predictions of models.There will be imprecision associated with these predictions, partly resulting from lack ofknowledge (for example, about the nature of the release and the actual stateof the weather), partly due to imprecision in the models themselves and partlydue to intrinsic imprecision associated with the accuracy of the measurements.This study considers the relative importance of the key parameters influencingassessment imprecision and discusses the implications for emergency response systems.