Key process diagnostics for monsoon intraseasonal oscillation over the Indian Ocean in coupled CMIP6 models

Abstract

The simulations of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are evaluated with 19 atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6). The focus is on the northward propagation of MISO. The CMIP6 models have great improvement in simulating the mean rainfall, as 17 out of 19 models can reasonably simulate the mean rainfall. However, many models fail to reproduce the realistic patterns of the mean rainfall and the MISO amplitude, particularly over land in the monsoon region. The underestimation of the MISO amplitude is still a notable model bias in CMIP6. Moreover, 9 out of 19 models cannot generate realistic northward propagation features, and some even reproduce a stationary MISO pattern. Process diagnostics based on the seasonal mean vertical zonal wind shear, low-level mean moisture, and vortex tilting are also examined. It is found that the accuracy of model simulations of vortex tilting is strongly associated with the northward propagation of MISO. In contrast, the model fidelity in MISO is not dependent on the simulation skill for the seasonal mean state. In addition, decomposition analysis of vortex tilting illustrates that the meridional shear of the intraseasonal vertical velocity is crucial to the tilting simulation. The poor model fidelity in vortex tiling is caused by the weak convection, particularly the absence of downdraft to the north of the convection center. The coupling between the moisture in the boundary layer and the tilting in the free troposphere may be responsible for capturing the vertical motions. In summary, vortex tilting can be a useful metric for evaluating the northward propagation of MISO.