Key driver analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in Thailand's public bus transport with comparative study on metropolitan Bangkok hotspots

Abstract

The 2007–2020 timeframe, an economic growth period coupled with a rising population for Thailand, witnessed an increase in fixed-route bus transportation options. It is expected that this sector will continue to grow and that additional routes will become accessible to the public in the near-term. It is generally accepted that the high Thai birth rate and the increased travel requirements of the less affluent will augment this growth. The objective of this study is to accurately estimate the 2007–2020 energy consumption and resultant greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from public land transport. The focus will be on the regularly scheduled fixed-route bus schedules in Thailand that emit undesired pollutants, specifically CO2, N2O and CH4. Once estimates are reached, the past impact and the future ramifications of this mode of transport's contribution to the generation of toxic emissions into the environment will be analyzed. An evaluation of key carbon emission drivers will also be presented along with our identification of these pollutants. Furthermore, this study will focus comparatively on the areas of high development within Thailand, specifically, Bangkok localities referred to here as hotspots. These high density, economically vibrant areas contributed 15 % of Thailand's total fixed-route bus emissions in 2020. Being the capital of Thailand with the largest population center, Bangkok serves as a unique focal point where data extrapolations can be compared and contrasted with the nation as a whole. Although results from our research will show that fixed-route bus transport represents a small portion of total GHG emissions in Thailand, the data will show that significant improvement can be made to reduce this sector's carbon footprint. However, the most impactful contribution will be to the ‘quality of life’ benefit afforded to the large percentage of the Thai population that live within the concentrated areas serviced by fixed-route buses.