Kenya's fertility transition: Trends, determinants and implications for policy and programmes

Abstract

In Africa, fertility rates in the 1990s declined less rapidly than had been projected, and in a few cases the fertility transition appears to have stalled. This development has serious implications for future population growth because projected population size is sensitive to minor variations in current fertility trends. The 16 countries with three DHS surveys in sub-Saharan Africa can be divided into three subgroups: stalled transitions, insignificant declines, and significant declines. Half of the 16 countries experienced a stall, and an additional two experienced insignificant declines. The Population Council prepared a series of demographic and policy analyses that drew from the existing literature on fertility and family planning in Kenya. These analyses were presented at a meeting of key stakeholders in Kenya in 2008. This report presents the issues emerging from the analyses and discussions, and suggests some policy and programmatic actions that can be taken to help the Government of Kenya address the stall within the frameworks of the Millennium Development Goals and the country’s “Vision 2030” plan for sustainable development.