Kennedy, Paul (1993). Preparing for the twenty-first century

Abstract

What's the world coming to? was a favorite question in my family when was growing up. Pondering some item, my parents would shake their heads and say: I can remember when you could get two of these for less than a dollar! And would think to myself: Oh, what do they know? They're just old and out of touch, Now, at age 48, find the shoe is on the other foot, and it fits uncomfortably well. My wife just spent 23.50 to take our son to a movie; my office co-workers are buying used cars because they can no longer afford ones; and the cost of a college education--. What, indeed, is the world coming to?This is exactly the question that preoccupies Paul Kennedy in preparing fm the twenty-first century. Kennedy, an English-born professor of history at Yale, is the author of the influential 1987 book, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The present book stems from a Brookings Institution debate over the previous one, during which Kennedy was challenged to write not about the nation-state in particular, but about the transnational challenges facing the world as a whole. These include population growth and migration, the impact and social organization of biological and industrial technology, and global environmental degradation.The book is organized into three parts. The first part concerns general worldwide trends. Included are chapters on the demographic explosion; the revolution in communications, finances, and the growth of multinational corporations; world agriculture and biotechnology; robotics, automation, and the new industrial revolution; ecological degradation and its potential effects; and the nation-state. Kennedy's general argument is that, with the world population doubling to 10 billion by 2050, we are in the jaws of a Malthusian trap. Of course, Malthus' grim predictions of gigantic, inevitable famine in 19th century Britain failed to prove true for three reasons: unlimited emigration, the onset of an agricultural revolution that greatly improved food yields, and, most importantly, the industrial revolution. But what about today? Optimists point to biotechnology, automation, and economic globalization as our salvation. Yet, these are two-edged swords at best, with real potential for widening the gap between rich and poor. Biotechnology, for example, can greatly enhance the food production of a high-tech nation like Japan that has the infrastructure to take advantage of it, thereby reducing dependence on imports. But this could devastate countries that are struggling to support exploding populations by exporting food. There will, of course, be plenty of need for the food among other Third World countries, but how will they pay for it? Likewise, the multinational corporation is capable of bringing employment to impoverished areas of the world. Yet, such corporations have a global reach without comparable responsibility. Loyal only to their shareholders, they need have no respect for local customs or governments. If one country unionizes, they will simply move to another. With the population doubling, the next century will be a buyer's market for unskilled labor, and the multinationals will respond accordingly.The book's second part deals with the regional impacts of these trends. While the trends indicate a general economic and social decline, there will still be winners and losers along the way. With its export driven economy, technological base, and homogenous society emphasizing group duty, Japan is the nation perhaps best equipped to face the challenges of the future. Europe, led by a united Germany, is also likely to do well, particularly if the countries within it can set aside their differences and unite under the European Community. Kennedy concludes that the East Asian countries--South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong--will also prosper. By contrast, China and India, despite their positive investments in education and technology, are already staggering under burden of a huge population and will not fare as well. …