Ken Kollman and John E. Jackson. Dynamic Partisanship: How and Why Voter Loyalties Change

Abstract

Debates over the stability and relevance of partisanship are as old as the field of political behavior itself. Is partisanship a long-term, unmoving psychological attachment, or is it more dynamic and responsive to changes in the political environment? In Dynamic Partisanship, Kollman and Jackson ask, what if both sides of the partisan-stasis-versus-change debate are (somewhat) correct? Using advanced structural modeling techniques with time-series data, Kollman and Jackson provide us an understanding of mass partisanship that allows for both stability and change over time. Examining 50 years of data on mass partisanship across four advanced democracies (Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the authors show that while partisanship is fairly stable across time, voters can, and do, respond to changes in party issue positioning. In this way, political parties are constrained in their behavior, as moving too far toward the extremes will have long-lasting negative effects on their electoral fortunes. Kollman and Jackson’s model of dynamic partisanship shows that partisans are not blind in their loyalty and that they will hold parties accountable if they move toward the extremes. In turn, political parties tend toward constraining their behavior to keep loyal partisans, and thus long-term partisan stability is observed in the electorate.