Kazakh government will try to moderate oil reliance

Abstract

Subject Kazakh economic update. Significance Kazakhstan's economic growth continued in the first half of 2019, driven primarily by stable oil exports and a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The economy ministry is forecasting GDP growth of 3.8% this year, compared with 4.1% in 2018. The national oil fund provides a safety cushion against short-term falls in export revenue, but the government wants to restrict its use of this resource. Impacts Anticipated increases in real disposable incomes this year will help reduce poverty levels. Declining demand from the EU, China or Russia could dampen economic growth. This year's bond issuances are intended to establish a benchmark sovereign yield curve that will help price future corporate issuances. The threat of US secondary sanctions increases the risks to Kazakh entities dealing with Russian investors.