Abstract
The water level in a river defines the nature of flow and is fundamental to flood analysis. Extreme fluctuation in water levels in rivers, such as floods and droughts, are catastrophic in every manner; therefore, forecasting at an early stage would prevent possible disasters and relief efforts could be set up on time. This study aims to digitally model the water level in the Kabul River to prevent and alleviate the effects of any change in water level in this river downstream. This study used a machine learning tool known as the automatic autoregressive integrated moving average for statistical methodological analysis for forecasting the river flow. Based on the hydrological data collected from the water level of Kabul River in Swat, the water levels from 2011–2030 were forecasted, which were based on the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion as 9.216. It was concluded that the water flow started to increase from the year 2011 till it reached its peak value in the year 2019–2020, and then the water level will maintain its maximum level to 250 cumecs and minimum level to 10 cumecs till 2030. The need for this research is justified as it could prove helpful in establishing guidelines for hydrological designers, the planning and management of water, hydropower engineering projects, as an indicator for weather prediction, and for the people who are greatly dependent on the Kabul River for their survival.
Highlights
In ancient times, cities were established on the banks of rivers so that their inhabitants could take advantage of the opportunities offered by the river in terms of food, trade, and defence, and the same is applicable in this era of advancement as well [1,2]
Keeping in view the importance of the country’s major river in terms of the economy, hydroelectricity, and human existence, an analysis was undertaken to study and predict the water level from the year 2011 till the year 2030 based on historical trends
The Kabul River poses a threat to Pakistani soil in extreme conditions either by being flooded excessively due to the melting of glaciers and incessant precipitation or due to severe spells of droughts
Summary
Cities were established on the banks of rivers so that their inhabitants could take advantage of the opportunities offered by the river in terms of food, trade, and defence, and the same is applicable in this era of advancement as well [1,2]. River basin management is a scientific and technical. Sustainability 2021, 13, 10720 and defence, and the same is applicable in this era of advancement as well [1,2]. River basin management is a scientific and technical area involves several several intricacies intricacies because becauseof ofthe thevarious variousfeatures featuresofofparticular particular area of of study study and and involves rivers andtheir theiroffshoot offshoot branches, drained the application of this[4]
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