Juvenile proportion as a predictor of freshwater turtle population change

Abstract

AbstractThe extreme longevity of turtles and tortoises can make it difficult to determine the conservation status of their populations because high annual adult survival may mask gradual attrition due to low levels of recruitment. When long‐term demographic trends are unknown and available data are insufficient for population modelling, it may be assumed that a scarcity of juveniles indicates low recruitment that will result in population ageing and numerical decline. However, the reliability with which the proportion of juveniles foreshadows demographic change is uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that a low proportion of juveniles in a turtle population presages its ageing by analysing over 20 years of survey data for five discrete populations of the Australian western saw‐shelled turtle (Myuchelys bellii: Chelidae), a listed threatened species. The analysis tested whether the initial proportion of juvenile turtles in each population was related to its temporal trend in average body size. The five populations had varied structure and trends, with the initial proportion of juvenile turtles ranging from 10% to 39% and average body size increasing over time in some populations and decreasing in others. Contrary to expectation, the initial proportion of juveniles was unrelated to the trend in average body size and, by inference, average age, indicating that effective trend forecasting requires more detailed demographic information than merely population structure.