JUVENILE PROBATION OFFICERS’ DISPOSITIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS: PREDICTIVE FACTORS AND THEIR ALIGNMENT WITH PREDICTORS OF RECIDIVISM

Abstract

ABSTRACT Studies of the juvenile justice system have suggested that a lack of specified guidelines in decision-making processes produces sentencing outcomes which are profoundly affected by the individual discretion of court actors. This issue is complicated by the dual mandate of the juvenile justice system: to protect public safety and to serve the needs of youth. In New York City, one critical decision point is the presentencing report that juvenile probation officers (JPOs) write, which makes a dispositional recommendation to the presiding judge. This article compares factors that New York City JPOs consider important in making recommendations against factors that predict recidivism. Results indicate that factors that predict recommendations and factors that predict recidivism are not very similar. JPOs are principally concerned with evidence of compliance with legal rules and institutions, while recidivism is best predicted by gender and school engagement. Our findings suggest that the dual mandate of juvenile justice has produced a compromise in the daily work of JPOs which does not effectively identify youth who are likely to re-offend.