Juvenile Chinook Salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea: Implications for future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River

Abstract

Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance in the northern Bering Sea is used to provide insight into future returns and fisheries in the Yukon River. The status of Yukon River Chinook Salmon is of concern due to recent production declines and subsequent closures of commercial, sport, and personal use fisheries, and severe restrictions on subsistence fisheries in the Yukon River. Surface trawl catch data, mixed layer depth adjustments, and genetic stock mixtures are used to estimate juvenile abundance for the Canadian-origin stock group from the Yukon River. Abundance ranged from a low of 0.62 million in 2012 to a high of 2.58 million in 2013 with an overall average of 1.5 million from 2003 to 2015. Although abundance estimates indicate that average survival is relatively low (average of 5.2%), juvenile abundance was significantly correlated (r=0.87, p=0.005) with adult returns, indicating that much of the variability in survival occurs during early life-history stages (freshwater and initial marine). Juvenile abundance in the northern Bering Sea has increased since 2013 due to an increase in early life-history survival (average juveniles-per-spawner increased from 29 to 59). The increase in juvenile abundance is projected to produce larger runs and increased subsistence fishing opportunities for Chinook Salmon in the Yukon River as early as 2016.