Juvenile Arrest and Later Economic Attainment: Strength and Mechanisms of the Relationship

Abstract

We tested the impact of juvenile arrest on asset accumulation, debt accumulation, and net worth from ages 20–30. We also examined whether indicators of family formation, school and work attainment, and subsequent justice system contacts explained any effects. We used longitudinal data on 7916 respondents from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort. Our treatment variable was a dichotomous indicator of whether respondents were arrested as juveniles. Our focal outcomes were combined measures of the values of 10 types of assets, 6 types of debt, and net worth (assets minus debt) at ages 20, 25, and 30. We used propensity score methods to create matched groups of respondents who were and were not arrested as juveniles, and we compared these groups on the outcomes using multilevel growth curve analyses. Arrested juveniles went on to have lower assets, debts, and net worth during young adulthood compared to non-arrested juveniles. These differences were most pronounced at age 30. The differences were largely explained by educational attainment, weeks worked, and income. The fact that juvenile arrest predicted early adult economic attainment net of 43 matching covariates provides strong evidence that these effects are not merely artifacts of selection. The additional finding that education, employment, and income explain much of the juvenile arrest effect highlights several potential areas of intervention for protecting young arrestees’ later net worth.