Justice Has Served: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Retirement Strategies

Abstract

Empirical studies have been mixed about whether the political environment influences a justice's decision to retire from the U.S. Supreme Court. Studies have tended to presume that the influence of the political environment is uniform, such that justices are more likely to retire during more favorable environments and less likely to retire during less favorable environments. But this article provides theory and evidence that justices are more likely to time their retirements to only one particular favorable political environment: a favorable political environment following an unfavorable political environment. Results of an analysis of Supreme Court justices' retirement decisions from 1962 to 2010 suggest that justices have pursued this delayed-retirement strategy more than any other retirement strategy.