Justice and the Assignment of the Intergenerational Costs of Climate Change

Abstract

Matters of intergenerational justice are fundamental to discussions of justice and climate change. This is the case for several reasons. We are confident that our emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are having an effect on the global climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) six different climate models in their Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) predict global mean temperature increases ranging from 1.8°C to 4.0°C during this century. This is projected to increase global mean sea levels by 0.18 to 0.59 meters. The attendant weather changes are less certain, as is how they will vary from region to region. But some of the effects that AR4 predicts as very likely include hotter high temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and greater precipitation in high latitudes. Effects that it estimates as likely include decreased precipitation in the subtropics and increased intensity of tropical cyclones. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) warns of a weakening of the thermohaline circulation and its possible abrupt shutdown after 2100. Unlike TAR, however, AR4 does not discuss the probabilities of severe or catastrophic adverse effects. But this absence is the subject of controversy among climate scientists, some of whom charge that politically motivated redactions to AR4 occurred.josp_1447 204..224