Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia

Ayobami Solomon Oyewo,A.A Solomon,Dmitrii Bogdanov,Arman Aghahosseini,Theophilus Nii Odai Mensah,Manish Ram,Christian Breyer

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2021.05.029

Ayobami Solomon Oyewo, A.A Solomon + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.05.029

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Abstract

This article explores the transition to renewable energy for all purposes in developing countries. Ethiopia is chosen as a case study and is an exemplary of developing countries with comparable climatic and socioeconomic conditions. The techno-economic analysis of the transition is performed with the LUT Energy System Transition model, while the socio-economic aspects are examined in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, improved energy services and job creation. Six scenarios were developed, which examine various policy constraints, such as greenhouse gas emission cost. The Best Policy Scenarios cost less than the Current Policy Scenarios and generate more job. The results of this research show that it is least costing, least greenhouse gas emitting and most job-rich to gradually transition Ethiopia's energy system into one that is dominated by solar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower. The modelling outcome reveals that it is not only technically and economically possible to defossilise the Ethiopian energy system, but it is the least cost option with greatest societal welfare. This is a first of its kind study for the Ethiopian energy system from a long-term perspective.

Highlights

The need for coordinated efforts to mitigate the threat of climate change and to eradicate widespread energy poverty is evident in the perspectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change and Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) [1]
Ethiopia is chosen as a case study, as the country reflects the current situation in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, which includes limited infrastructure, growing population, dependence on fossil fuel, high use of unsustainable biomass and vulnerability to climate change
It is worth mentioning that Ethiopia has the land resources to technically host a generation mix led by variable RE (VRE), since only 0.1% of the land is required for ground-mounted solar PV and a further 0.1% for wind energy

Summary

Introduction

The need for coordinated efforts to mitigate the threat of climate change and to eradicate widespread energy poverty is evident in the perspectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change and Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) [1]. In 2011, Ethiopia launched a Climate Resilient Green Economy (CGRE) strategy, with the clear objective to become a middleincome country by 2025, and to achieve this through economic growth that is both resilient to negative impacts of climate change and results in no net greenhouse gas emissions [3]. With an expanding population of above 100 million, Ethiopia is the second most populated country in Africa, and the fastest growing economy in the region [4]. It is one of the poorest in the world, with per capita income of 790 USD in 2018 [4] and is ranked 173rd of 189 in terms of human development index [5]. Biofuel accounts for the largest share (87%) of the total primary energy supply, hydrocarbons 10% and electricity 3% in 2017 as illustrated in Fig. 1 [8]

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