Abstract
The expansion of higher education enrollment and attainment is a key uncertainty in the education profile of future populations. Many studies have examined cross-national determinants of higher education expansion as well the understanding of expansion through the relationship between higher education and the labor market. Early work established a typology for levels of enrollment, but recent empirical studies on the global growth of higher education attainment are scarce, and available projections resort to imposing ad hoc limits on future expansion. This study addresses this gap by comparing the trajectories of higher education expansion with those experienced at other levels on their course to universal or near-universal access. We demonstrate that a population-level model of expansion toward universal access fits higher education as well as lower levels of education (i.e., primary and secondary education). In other words, that there is no prima facie evidence of a ceiling in higher education enrollment that would indicate saturation significantly below 100 % participation. Claims that are premised on such a ceiling should therefore consider empirical evidence for this assumption in their analysis. These findings contribute to discussions on higher education expansion as well as studies of higher education and the labor market.
Highlights
Demographic behaviors and experiences concerning fertility, health, mortality, and migration often vary considerably between individuals with different levels of education
Assessing the past and future implications of population aging for crucial issues, such as the burden of functional limitations and dementia, depends on the educational composition of the population (Crimmins et al 2018; Freedman and Martin 1999; Martin et al 2010), including its higher education attainment
The preceding review demonstrates a lively disagreement regarding the expectations for what kind of higher education expansion dynamics will, prevail, even
Summary
Demographic behaviors and experiences concerning fertility, health, mortality, and migration often vary considerably between individuals with different levels of education. For key characteristics, including life expectancy, such differences are observed even between the highest levels of formal educational attainment and academic distinction (Winkler-Dworak 2008). Most research on the expansion of education has focused on basic education through schooling. The literature on higher education has devoted considerable attention to the expansion of enrollments (Marginson 2016a; Schofer and Meyer 2005; Trow 1973), generally without the attendant predisposition to truly universal attainment, in which every young person participates in higher education, as a normative goal. A significant concern in research is whether attainment may reach levels that are undesirable (i.e., overqualification)
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