Just a strategic move? Exploring good reasons for self-determination referendums through the case of East Timor

Abstract

ABSTRACT Using referendums to settle the question of sovereignty might look intuitive, but self-determination is not always accompanied by a referendum empirically, and the existing literature largely points to politicians’ instrumental motivations to hold self-determination referendums. Referendums are also notorious for their zero-sum nature. What exactly then makes referendums essential for self-determination? By analysing East Timor’s 1999 referendum, this article uncovers three reasons referendums should be held to accurately ascertain the population’s wishes in non-democratic contexts: the fear that representatives might be bribed or threatened in a hypothetical indirect vote; the simple nature of referendums; and the lack of democratic tradition.