Abstract
The flagship measurement of the JUNO experiment is the determination of the neutrino mass ordering. Here we revisit its prospects to make this determination by 2030, using the current global knowledge of the relevant neutrino parameters as well as current information on the reactor configuration and the critical parameters of the JUNO detector. We pay particular attention to the non-linear detector energy response. Using the measurement of $\theta_{13}$ from Daya Bay, but without information from other experiments, we estimate the probability of JUNO determining the neutrino mass ordering at $\ge$ 3$\sigma$ to be 31% by 2030. As this probability is particularly sensitive to the true values of the oscillation parameters, especially $\Delta m^2_{21}$, JUNO's improved measurements of $\sin^2 \theta_{12}$, $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and $|\Delta m^2_{ee}|$, obtained after a couple of years of operation, will allow an updated estimate of the probability that JUNO alone can determine the neutrino mass ordering by the end of the decade. Combining JUNO's measurement of $|\Delta m^2_{ee}|$ with other experiments in a global fit will most likely lead to an earlier determination of the mass ordering.
Highlights
After the first observation of the so-called solar neutrino puzzle by the Homestake experiment in the late 1960s, it took us about 30 years to establish that neutrino flavor oscillations are prevalent in nature, impacting cosmology, astrophysics, as well as nuclear and particle physics
II we describe the νe survival probability in a way that highlights the physics that is relevant for medium-baseline reactor neutrino experiments and how it depends on the oscillation parameters
V we show how varying the true values of the neutrino oscillation parameters improves or reduces the prospects for Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO)’s determination of the neutrino mass ordering
Summary
After the first observation of the so-called solar neutrino puzzle by the Homestake experiment in the late 1960s, it took us about 30 years to establish that neutrino flavor oscillations are prevalent in nature, impacting cosmology, astrophysics, as well as nuclear and particle physics. VII we simulate 60 k experiments consistent with the current best fit values and uncertainties of the oscillation parameters From this simulation we estimate the probabilities that JUNO can determine the mass ordering at ≥ 3σ with 4, 8 and 16 years of data taking. There are four Appendices: Appendix A addresses the effects of imposing artificial constraints on the Δm2’s, Appendix B gives a derivation of the oscillation probability used in this paper, Appendix C compares our analysis with the JUNO collaboration’s analysis and Appendix D discusses the current impact of T2K, NOvA and the atmospheric neutrino data on the determination of jΔm2eej
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