Judgmental vs. time series vs. deterministic models in local revenue forecasting: a florida case study

Abstract

This article presents a study of revenue forecasting in a Florida municipal government. Seven techniques, including the budget officers' judgmental approach, time series models, a deterministic model, and an optimized model, are employed with franchise and utility receipts in the Town of Davie. The authors found that simple time series models outperformed deterministic models and the judgmentally derived forecasts of local officials. Consistent with prior research, findings here suggest that the time series models are not only accurate, but also easy to implement and readily comprehensible by local officials.