Abstract
South Africa has great potential for considering wind energy as an alternative resource. The climatology allows for significant wind energy production. An accurate joint description of the wind speed (linear) and wind direction (circular) characteristics is important for wind farm development. In this paper, a bivariate class of flexible joint probability density functions of wind speed and wind direction for the use in wind energy analysis is presented. This joint model accounts for bimodality, skewness, and a dependency structure between the wind speed and wind direction. For the joint probabilistic description of the wind speed and wind direction, special cases of this bivariate class are evaluated, namely the semi-parametric Möbius model on the disc, the Möbius distribution on the disc, and the Beta type III Möbius distribution on the disc. These three special cases are applied to wind speed and wind direction data recorded every ten minutes at two locations in South Africa. Evaluation of the models is based on three different information criteria and normalized deviation. Overall, the semi-parametric model is superior to the parametric models based on the performance measures. The wind energy potential at the two locations is evaluated using the semi-parametric model.
Highlights
In South Africa, fossil fuels are the main form of energy supply
Using the results of [23], we present the following three special models of (2), namely (i) a semi-parametric Möbius model on the disc (SPM), (ii) the Möbius distribution on the disc (MD), and (iii) the Beta type III Möbius distribution on the disc (BM), to jointly model the wind speed and wind direction for the wind data observed at Humansdorp and Noupoort
We propose a class of joint probability models for the wind speed and wind direction data at Humansdorp and Noupoort
Summary
In South Africa, fossil fuels are the main form of energy supply. This results in emissions causing local and global environmental complications. As reported by [1], even though wind energy is popular due to the cost efficiency, there are some unfavorable environmental impacts of wind energy, such as the noise produced by the windmills, its impact on the ecology (bird hits), etc. To overcome these negative impacts, the design of the wind farms is of utmost importance
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