Joint or not: unpacking the decision-making mechanism of pandemic control between two nations – from the perspective of cost optimization

Abstract

Joint control has been proposed to alleviate the negative spillover of the pandemic. The authority faces a decision dilemma on whether to undertake joint control, which is overlooked by the scientific community. This paper, aiming to clarify the decision-making mechanism under cost optimization, draws on the optimization theory to find the optimal strategies and start time under independent and joint scenarios with an improved infectious disease model. Besides, a simulation analysis, based on the survey in Ruili – a border area between Myanmar and China, is employed. The crucial findings highlight that (1) The control measures contribute to reducing the peak number or peak time of confirmed patients under optimal decision. (2) As the delay of start time, the epidemic control for both countries undergoes from validity to failure. (3) More cost-savings come with earlier joint control but with uneven distribution. Joint strategy mitigates the cost for the one with severe epidemics, but the effect is insignificant for the other. This study, concentrating on cost optimization, provides a novel insight into pandemic control. The results enrich the decision analysis in the context of pandemic joint governance while providing inter-regional control support for the decision-maker to tackle various epidemics.