Joint Model of Transit Usage Frequency and In-Vehicle Safety Perception During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Social distancing strategies and strict hygiene adherence during the pandemic have added an extra dimension to the safety requirements of transit usage. Thus, travelers’ altered safety perceptions, which can affect transit usage, need to be assessed for effective policy decisions for the post-pandemic period. This study examined the interaction between in-vehicle safety perception and transit usage using an integrated approach by jointly modeling them, considering the fear of virus infection. A multivariate ordered probit model was developed for the investigation using a dataset collected through a web-based travel survey conducted in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. The results reveal that, along with socioeconomic attributes, many pandemic-related variables and latent attitudinal factors affect the propensity to use transit. It is observed that those having a better safety perception of the bus are more inclined to use transit more frequently than others. Apart from safety perception, those who were more cautious, over the age of 34, and shifted to working from home during the pandemic had an adverse propensity to use transit. However, a higher propensity toward transit usage was observed for pre-pandemic transit users and for those who had a higher level of satisfaction with transit attributes during the pandemic. A similar tendency was also observed for fully vaccinated residents.