Joining the Major Powers for the Status Quo: China's Views and Policy on Korean Reunification

Abstract

T-1 HE ENDING OF THE COLD wAR has yet to alter the legacy of a defining event of the rivalry between the West and the former Soviet bloc: the Korean War of 1950-53. national division of Korea remains a major issue in East Asian politics. At the end of the 1990s, the course of Korean reunification still seems to be beyond the control of the Koreans. Four major powers in the region, the United States, China,Japan, and Russia, continue to hold the key to the political future of the Korean Peninsula. economic empowerment of South Korea, somewhat tarnished by the financial and debt crisis of 1997-98, and the political transition in Pyongyang may have created some favourable conditions for the Koreans to strive for reunification. Yet, the major external powers, especially the United States and China, still have a crucial role to play, if not a straightforward veto power. Currently, the major powers have demonstrated a shared interest in peace and stability in Northeast Asia through maintaining the status quo, rather than in a reunification of the Korean Peninsula. Such a rare convergence of major power views may, however, create a historical opportunity leading to a fundamental resolution of the Korean question if, for example, the two Koreas can work together to convince the major powers that Korean reunification, though a change of the status quo, will not damage the preferred peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, will not disrupt the accepted balance of power among the major powers in the region, and will ultimately stabilize international relations in Northeast Asia. Beijing is fully aware of the role the major powers play on the Korean Peninsula. One Chinese analyst wrote bluntly that The future new international political order in Northeast Asia depends on the relations among the four major powers: the U.S., Japan, China, and Russia. interests of the four major powers will affect the issue of Korean reunification. Korean reunification will be decided by inter-Korean factors under the influence of the political attitudes of the four major powers.'