Abstract
A new model of radicalization has appeared in Western countries since the 2010s. However, few empirical data are available to interpret the profiles of European young people who have embraced radical Islamism. Mixing qualitative/quantitative approaches, the present study is the first to explore their motives for radicalization, as well as how characteristics at baseline predicted their status at follow-up (FU). In 2014-2015, 150 individuals (mean age: 19.82 years; 101 (67.3%) females; 100 (67%) Muslim converts) were followed-up prospectively by the Centre de Prévention contre les Dérives Sectaires liées à l’Islam (CPDSI) until September 2016. Using a multiple correspondence analysis, we found that eight motivational dimensions (interest in violence; feelings of depression, responsibility, uncertainty or loneliness; experience of abuse; issues with sexuality; and poor insight) combining in eight statistical factors drove individuals towards radicalization. At FU, 95(63%) were no longer radicalized, 21(14%) were disengaged, 19(13%) were still radicalized, and 15(10%) had reached the Islamic State. Univariate and multivariate analyses found some protective factors defining individuals with developmental vulnerabilities that can be encountered in many psychopathologies. In addition, multivariate models showed that worse status at FU was predicted by being married, having married parents, having attempted to radicalize other relatives, and having a close friend or relative imprisoned before radicalization. We conclude that multidimensional efforts to de-radicalize young people are efficient, although a worse prognosis is associated with neighborhood/proximal phenomena. Prevention should target these local/proximal contexts to further prevent radicalization.
Highlights
The terrorism threat level in Europe is critical (Reardon, 2015)
We present 2 models to predict prognosis at FU: in the first model, the explanatory variables are all the variables collected in Table 1; in the second model, the explanatory variables are the dimensions defined through multiple correspondence analysis (MCA)
Visual inspection of the MCA screen plot (Fig. 2) suggested that increasing beyond 8 dimensions would not improve the variance explained by the MCA
Summary
The terrorism threat level in Europe is critical (Reardon, 2015). The terrorist movements of the 1990s (i.e., AlQaida, Chechen terrorism) aimed to target a foreign country or were fighting for national liberation (Sageman, 2004). Two profiles were highlighted: (1) individuals who commit violent actions within a radical group and (2) individuals – so-called ‘lone wolves’ – who act in a more isolated manner and radicalize more quickly (Corner and Gill, 2015). Several theoretical models rather describe radicalization as a step-by-step process that may lead to a violent form of action directly linked to an extremist ideology (Doosje et al 2016; Kruglanski et al 2013, 2014; Moghaddam, 2005; Wiktorowicz, 2005) These models point out the complexity and entanglement of several risk factors (individuals, organizational, environmental and societal) that interact during the radicalization process (Campelo et al 2018). Individual risk factors of bullying or discrimination such as perceived injustice or feeling of injustice often act as a starting point
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