Abstract
Understanding why and when states militarily intervene in civil wars is crucial. Intervention can increase civil wars’ severity and the strategies employed in civil wars are shaped by the possibility of military intervention. This article argues that potential military interveners react to information revealed about warring parties’ intentions and relative power. Without revealed information, potential military interveners are unlikely to reconsider their initial decision to remain out of the war. Revealed information causes non-belligerent states to update their expectations about the trajectory of the civil war causing them, at times, to change their calculus about the benefits of belligerency and thus intervene. This helps explain why civil wars spread and when they do so. This explanation is tested using generalised estimating equations on a new data-set of unexpected events for the civil wars in the Correlates of War Intrastate War and PRIO Armed Conflict data-sets.
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