Abstract

U.S. EMPLOYMENT PEAKED in December 2007. The month marked the end of a weak and relatively short period of job growth. This period generated a 6% increase in payrolls and lasted for 52 months. The growth phases of the eight earlier bust-and-boom employment cycles since 1948 produced average payroll gains of 18% and lasted an average of 67 months. Prior to this one, the two most recent job upturns—from 1982 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2001—both posted payroll gains of close to 23% and lasted for 90 and 117 months, respectively. The down phase of the first eight job cycles lasted an average of 12 months. For the just completed ninth cycle, it took 30 months to hit bottom. These sobering statistics and the near-halt to growth in the gross national product in the fourth quarter of 2007 should have brought an end to denial and obfuscation about the economy. But they apparently haven't. ...

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